Jobs Surge, Clancy Mistrial, Iran Strikes and Record Diesel Prices

S15 EP159: Hour 1 - Jobs Report, Interest Rates, and the GOP

Erick Erickson defends the Lindsay Clancy jury against the online mob, walking through the one quirk of Massachusetts law that almost nobody on social media understands: Massachusetts is the only state where the prosecution must prove a defendant was sane beyond a reasonable doubt. Then the August jobs report lands at 162,000 new jobs, roughly three times what economists expected, and Erick explains why the good news may force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates instead of cutting them. Plus the Politico scoop on Republicans who do not want Donald Trump campaigning in their districts, and the CNN KFile dig on democratic socialist candidate Will Lawrence.

  • Lindsay Clancy verdict: why the Massachusetts insanity standard, not jury solidarity, drove the outcome, and why Erick expects a mistrial and a retrial on manslaughter alone
  • The exact Massachusetts model jury instruction on criminal responsibility, read on air, and why Erick says the Commonwealth could not meet it
  • August jobs report: 162,000 jobs against expectations of 53,000, unemployment steady at 4.1 percent, upward revisions to June and July, and Kevin Hassett calling it four standard deviations above the mean
  • The catch nobody is touting: wage growth still trails inflation, gas and diesel prices keep climbing, and tariffs are eating the raises
  • Why maximum employment frees the Federal Reserve to fight inflation, and why the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P all fell on good news
  • Politico beats the Journal, Post, Axios and Fox to the story: battleground Republicans telling Trump's team to stay out of their districts, and Erick's fix, run against the Democratic socialists instead

S15 EP159: Hour 2 - Football is Back

Erick Erickson opens football season with Ben Sasse's Wall Street Journal case for high school football as one of the last institutions still forming young men, then makes his own argument for keeping politics out of sports, out of movies, and out of your hamburger. He plays the viral supercut of the words Candace Owens cannot pronounce, takes a caller on Reza Pahlavi and whether the exiled Shah's son can actually lead a post-theocratic Iran, and reads new intelligence reporting that a more confident Iran is preparing to escalate around the Strait of Hormuz. Plus the Rick Jackson ad out of Georgia that Erick says shows Republicans exactly how to win this year.

  • Ben Sasse in the Wall Street Journal: family, religion, work and war have faded, and why football is the character forming institution boys have left
  • Why the NFL recovered from the Colin Kaepernick years and the NBA and WNBA did not, plus Steak n Shake MAGA meals and the politicization of the Odyssey movie, restaurants and food
  • The Candace Owens mispronunciation account: bureaucracy, monstrosity, caricature, statute of limitations, price gouging, and the cream of the crop
  • Caller question on Reza Pahlavi, the exiled Shah's son, his coalition of Iranian democratic parties, and why he still needs Washington and Israel to destabilize the regime first
  • New York Times and Politico intelligence reporting on a more confident Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, 30 to 40 boats a night, 300 percent inflation, Patriot missile shortages, and unconfirmed reports of new launches
  • Rick Jackson's Georgia governor ad: 800 foster kids whose college tuition he paid, why Erick was told not to raise it in the primary, and why running on your own record beats running on an endorsement

S15 EP159: Hour 3 - SAVE Act Won't Save the GOP

Erick Erickson tells the online right the hard truth about the SAVE Act: most Americans have no idea what it is, and no election bill is what stands between Republicans and November. He argues gas prices, wages trailing inflation and grocery bills are the real problem, then plays James Talarico on white privilege and blinders, Abdul El-Sayed telling Stephen A. Smith he wants a secure border while he abolishes ICE, and Michigan's Will Lawrence on ending heterosexual households. Plus the Missouri Supreme Court blowing up the state's congressional map 60 days out, Paul Ryan and Andrew Ross Sorkin on the debt, Social Security and the retirement age, and Mark Thiessen's plan to let Ukraine build its own Patriot interceptors.

  • Why the SAVE Act is not a silver bullet: Erick's blunt case that voters have never heard of it, and that the midterm damage is about gas prices, wages beneath inflation and groceries, not election law
  • The mitigation strategy for November: play the Democrats' own words back at them, James Talarico on blinders and white privilege, Abdul El-Sayed refusing to disavow Hassan Piker, and the "he's for you, they're for they/them" ad Erick wants resurrected
  • Abolish ICE, explained: El-Sayed says ICE did not exist before this century, and Erick's answer that ICE is INS with a new name and a Homeland Security address
  • Missouri Supreme Court redistricting mess: primaries already run on a 7 to 1 map, the general ordered back to the old 6 to 2 map, and Erick's equal protection argument for taking it to the US Supreme Court
  • Entitlement reform as a second term legacy: Paul Ryan and Andrew Ross Sorkin on populism killing debt reduction, the automatic cuts coming by 2032, raising the retirement age, and a lame duck window after the midterms
  • Ukraine, Iran and one privacy warning: Mark Thiessen's PAC-2 and PAC-3 co-production plan for Ukraine, "go finish Iran," and the Krebs on Security report that scans of 153 million driver's licenses are for sale on a Russian forum

Clancy Trial, Fed Rate Hold, Trade Deficit and Michigan Senate Race

1. Lindsay Clancy Jury Faces Possible Deadlock
   Jurors were questioned individually after reports that one member was not cooperating in deliberations. The defense asked to replace the juror with an alternate, while prosecutors urged the judge to keep the current jury deliberating as the possibility of a hung jury or mistrial grows.

2. Federal Reserve Rate Hold Encourages Markets
   Markets responded positively after Federal Reserve governors signaled that the latest data may support holding interest rates steady at the next meeting. Rising bond yields and broader financial uncertainty remain concerns.

3. Technology Imports Drive a Wider U.S. Trade Deficit
   A surge in imported computer chips and technology equipment for new data centers is contributing to the expanding trade deficit. Howard Lutnick blamed the deficit on the loss of tariffs and predicted their return, while criticism of the tariff policy centers on the economic damage it could cause.

4. Jewish Democrats Back Mike Rogers in Michigan
   A group of 400 Jewish Democrats announced support for Mike Rogers, citing opposition to Abdul El-Sayed's positions on Israel and his continued association with Hasan Piker. The endorsement could reshape the political stakes in Michigan.

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S15 EP158: Hour 1 - Believing So Much That Is Not So

Erick opens with a hot dog stand anecdote from New Way Weiners in Macon that matches the polling data: a Trump voter who is not angry, just disappointed, with diesel over six dollars a gallon. He walks through Karl Rove's Wall Street Journal warning that a Trump rally a day in October and an ad blitz built on the president himself will sink Republicans at 39.6 percent approval, then takes apart Joe Rogan's claim that ending poverty would end crime. Also: Sam Altman and Howard Lutnick at the G20 Asheville summit, the vitamin K shot panic, and the death of Gloria Steinem.

  • Karl Rove's midterm warning: make 2026 about the Democrats, not Donald Trump
  • Trump at 39.6 percent approval, the "they/them" ad, Troy Jackson in Maine and James Talarico in Texas
  • Joe Rogan's poverty and crime take, and why the data does not back it
  • Sam Altman and Howard Lutnick at the G20 Asheville statement on light touch AI regulation
  • The algorithm versus AI: vitamin K shots, Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, and Gloria Steinem's death

S15 EP158: Hour 2 - Iran and Cruz

Erick tracks the Iran war as Brent hits 95 dollars and West Texas crude hits 91, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claiming the Strait of Hormuz is flowing and the regime is finished, while Iranian missiles hit Kuwait and possibly a hotel in Jordan. He then reports the growing revolt inside the Pentagon against Pete Hegseth after Army Secretary Dan Driscoll's resignation, and lays out his full theory of why the Republican Party keeps nominating the runner up, which points to Ted Cruz in 2028 if JD Vance stumbles. Breaking at the end of the hour: Maria Bartiromo is out at Fox Business after 12 years.

  • Iran escalation, the Strait of Hormuz, Chris Wright on 17 million barrels a day, Scott Bessent on the iron wall blockade
  • Brent at 95 dollars, West Texas crude at 91, diesel over 6 dollars a gallon, and Howard Lutnick on tariffs and GDP
  • Pete Hegseth losing the officer corps: Dan Driscoll resigns, Sean Parnell responds, House and Senate Republicans prepare tough questions
  • Erick's theory of everything on the GOP: Dick Cheney, Reagan, Bob Dole, John McCain, Mitt Romney, and why Ted Cruz should be the 2028 nominee
  • JD Vance, Tucker Carlson, Nick Fuentes, and the anti-Semitism problem with southern evangelicals and the donor class
  • Breaking: Maria Bartiromo out at Fox Business, speculation about White House Press Secretary

S15 EP158: Hour 3 - The China Problem

Erick knocks down the viral photos of the rusted USS Abraham Lincoln as left wing propaganda, pointing to the HMS Hermes coming back from the Falklands in 1982 in worse shape, then takes a call from Tom, a Navy pilot's father who says the fleet is simply broken and that 62 percent of jet pilots and 58 percent of helicopter pilots will not re-up under Pete Hegseth. The hour turns to Tom Homan on Fox laying out three straight record breaking months of ICE arrests and the national security case against birth tourism from Russia and China, Marco Rubio sanctioning Raul Castro's grandson and Banco Exterior de Cuba, and Erick's question about why the ICE protests vanished exactly when Cuban money in American shell accounts got frozen.

  • USS Abraham Lincoln rust photos debunked: HMS Hermes, the Falklands, and why every ship at sea corrodes
  • Caller Tom on the broken Navy: General Dynamics maintenance contracts, MH-60 helicopters, and pilot attrition under Pete Hegseth
  • Dan Driscoll out, General Randy George purged, and the Army drone program Hegseth sidelined without telling Donald Trump
  • Tom Homan on record ICE deportation arrests in June, July and August, plus 25,000 to 30,000 birth tourism cases a year from Russia and China
  • Marco Rubio sanctions the Castro financial network as the ICE protests quietly disappear
  • Ayanna Pressley calls birth tourism enforcement great replacement theory, and the Michigan land acknowledgement that set Erick off

S15 EP157: Hour 1 - The Bubble and the Message

Erick returns from break with good scan news for his wife, then breaks down why Army Secretary Dan Driscoll walked into the White House, told President Trump how many generals and admirals Pete Hegseth had quietly purged, and resigned on the spot. He also takes on Laura Ingraham by name over her "never Trump" attack, walks through Harry Enten's numbers showing Republicans running ahead of Trump's own 37 percent approval, and explains why the first Secure America PAC ads are aimed at exactly the wrong voters.

  • Dan Driscoll out at the Pentagon, the Washington Post readiness leak, and how many officers Pete Hegseth fired without telling the president
  • Why the president's super PAC ads fail: Harry Enten's data on Trump's 37 percent approval, the generic ballot, and the Republicans who are not motivated
  • Erick versus Laura Ingraham, the Dominion discovery text messages, and why he will never say privately what he will not say on air
  • Ken Paxton, James Talarico, and the Texas Senate race: run on the opponent's own words, not on your own record
  • Max Miller, Brian Poindexter, and the best campaign ad of 2026, plus Ann Richards' 1996 warning to Bill Clinton about campaigning on the past
  • Post Labor Day polling shifts, summer's Democratic bias, and the case against leaving the mentally ill on the streets

S15 EP157: Hour 2 - Dangers of the Algorithm